The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

A Market Beyond Metrics

The S&P could be mere points from ending a large impulse not only from May 13th, but from April 18th as well. It depends on the subdivisions of the waves, but 1652-1654 could be it, or the 1665-1672 area.

Nothing else has mattered thus far -- not internals, volume, number of days up without a correction -- so why discuss it anymore. It doesn't mean I don't keep track of these metrics anymore, it just means there is nothing to do but trade (and selectively hedge). This is how I can distrust the market and still make money from it.

The metrics I care about are my own. Still well behind my goals for this year, but making a solid return with a profit factor (gross profits/gross losses) of 4.6X and a win/loss ratio of 75%. Max drawdown is .20%.

At some point, metrics will matter to the market once again and my conviction will return.

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