The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Yet Another? Maybe Not

Markets snapped back to life last night. Futures are up strongly. It feels like yet another triangle is setting up. But I'm wondering if the market is setting a trap. "Yet another triangle" might be too easy. A low-volume rally up into Fib resistance would make a lot of sense. So would another violent flush into the 1600 area. From there I could see another rally perhaps.

New highs from here? I'm not so sure. Certainly it would help my option inventory (168 calls), but somehow I doubt it. That's why I still hold SPXU.

Friday was a very low volume day, as expected. I'm expecting another one today. If it cooperates, the higher the better up into the 1675 would work great. Then I can reassess things from there.

Robert Prechter's latest Theorist links to a fascinating article on Hungarian economist Antal Fekete which contains the following quote regarding fiat paper money which is backed by "faith and credit" and thus redeemable for nothing:

The regime of irredeemable currency is incompatible with the ideal of limited government. It grows into a system where farmers are paid for not farming, and workers are paid for not working.

It is a devastating quote in my opinion because it describes what is actually happening in our society. I personally know fishermen who were paid by the government to stop fishing. The government purchased their boats at generous prices, they received an additional lump sum for their trouble, and they drive BMWs now. There are record numbers of people on welfare and disability. Soon there could be more people living off the government than there are people working to pay for them.

This is not a political rant. It's just simple fact. It's also close to breaking down. The transition will not be pleasant, but it will be necessary and natural. It's the type of thing that makes me want to begin growing my own food.

Another interesting factoid in the Theorist that had gone unnoticed by me: Yahoo's CEO Marissa Meyer just agreed to buy Tumblr, "an Internet company that had only $13 million in sales (not profits) last year, for $1.1 billion! Bloomberg (5/21) reports, 'Yahoo is paying 85 times sales, the biggest multiple for an Internet company since 2000, the same year Yahoo's stock peaked at $118.75 amid the tech bubble.'"

What is bizarre to me is the level of social media commentary about how bearish people are. Yet as Prechter points out, last week the Daily Sentiment Index reached 92% bulls among futures traders in the S&P, and 93% bulls in the NASDAQ. Again, these figures are not anecdotal opinions; they're facts. And the fact that Yahoo paid 85 times sales for Tumblr is yet more proof that we're closer to a top than a bottom.

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