The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

On Guard

Futures popped in the overnight session. They're still nowhere as far as I'm concerned. Even with a nice 8 point pop, the cash market will still look a little too middle-of-the-page for me. 1650 above and 1610 below are areas of interest.

1653 has a volume shelf. The S&P has the definite potential to get there, and fast, in my opinion. If it doesn't, that will tell me something as well.

One thing I did not like yesterday, and it should be a warning, is the current reading on the "new 52 week high-low difference" chart. Yesterday's decline, which was nowhere near the 1598 lows, had a lower number than it did at the 1598 low. In other words, pronounced negative divergence. This, in addition to the darkening macro picture, has me on guard.

While I still think we're in a correction that is possibly not yet over, this is just another reason why I think that when the market finally resolves to the upside and makes a new high it may be a weak high and, possibly, the final high.

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