The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, June 28, 2013

Pray For Sun

Asia had a great night but Europe is mostly down, and futures reflect that here this morning, down for the first time this week. With about 44 points of this week's rally due to overnight action causing a morning gap, this may mark an important near-term change.

Given the structure of the rally thus far, anything below 1603.15 should be treated with caution. It could also be viewed as a breather while the market gathers steam. But the fact that the S&P hit its 50-day moving average yesterday and bounced off it from below, things could change rather quickly.

Gold got smashed overnight. It did just what I wanted it to do, only after hours when there were no options trading. Thinking of opening some GLD 120 calls. Will see how it acts today. The market can push around the price of gold a LOT on a summer Friday.

I see a down-sloping trend line from the 1687 high that coincides with the 61.8% of the entire move since, roughly 1638. So if 1603 holds, the pressure could still be higher.

Monday and Tuesday should be light trading ahead of the early close on Wednesday and the July 4th holiday on Thursday. Pray for sun. I live in New England.

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