The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, July 19, 2013


Yesterday's stop mentioned on Stocktwits and Twitter still stands: 1678.12. It's not a good looking pattern, but I don't want to see the market below this point.

It was reported that Google and Microsoft lost $30b in market cap last night. Putting aside Microsoft, I view the Google earnings as a canary for ad sales. Cost Per Click went down for the 2nd quarter in a row. In that I don't trust ANY company's accounting, this is an immediate red flag to me that advertising may be signalling a slowing economy. It's one of the first things to get cut.

This would echo UPS and their recent miss: less shipping of goods = less activity.

Condé Nast just closed their September books and while Vogue's ad pages were up to a new record, they were only up 1% as the rest of the mag market was up double digits. Perhaps consumer tastes are changing as they are in tech (mobile, tablets, etc.), but maybe things are getting soft just like they're getting soft in the S&P as it floats higher.

Volume is anemic. UVOL, which is relative and doesn't care how much volume there is (only how much of it is to the upside), is very weak for a market at all-time highs.

And at all-time highs, there are precious few new 52-week highs. This is a problem.

Regardless, the market would look much better with another high. The 1696 area still looks like a potential target.

No comments:

Post a Comment