An Opportunity Squandered

Perhaps it was John Deere (DE) which reported higher-than-expected quarterly profits yesterday yet plummeted as much as 2.87%, closing down 1.87%.

Or maybe it was the fact that consumer credit is still shrinking after years of unprecedented stimulus efforts by the Fed.

Or maybe it was U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Preet Bharara's news conference where he not-so-subtly put Jamie Dimon on notice.

The bulls blew their opportunity yesterday.

And then after the bell, Cisco (CSCO) made it worse, not only giving weak guidance, but announcing 4000 layoffs, which crushed the stock 10% after hours.

So, understandably futures are under pressure this morning. This should erase the 1682.62 low and target 1676.03 today.

Op-ex is Friday and open interest shows a ton of puts at SPY 167, SPX 1675, and OEX 750 -- just where futures are currently threatening. Somehow I think this could be a flush before a jam higher Friday. But that is pure speculation, maybe because the "official" Elliott Wave count calls for a crash -- in the Dow at least.

The waves look awful in the S&P, and that is why I have my doubts on the veracity of any move until clear wave subdivisions develop.

Below 1676.03 for any reason, though, would at least expose the 50-day moving average at 1655 and the 38% Fibonacci level at 1652.62.