The Latest Triumph Of Central Planning

Phew. Futures are up. The Fed is dovish. China PMI didn't collapse. Draghi held rates steady. Long live central planning.

Hey, as long as the market moves I'm happy.

The funny thing is that magically, China's PMI pulled through when it had to.

The National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing in Beijing reported that manufacturing activity expanded to 50.3.

Compare that with the 49.8 median forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg survey and June’s 50.1 level, as well as a separate PMI reading from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics that was 47.7 for July.

After yesterday's ugly S&P close, Globex futures traders obviously ran with the better news that Chinese manufacturing activity expanded instead of contracting to an 11-month low. That is if the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing is to be believed.

All this after HSBC's July 24th Flash PMI showed the worst 4-month collapse in the manufacturing indicator in three years. Ha.

What's it mean for the S&P? The way things look internally I'd rather have price head higher and be done. So I'm encouraged by the overnight ramp. Will it hold? Who knows, as long as it breaks out of the range. I'd rather see it above 1708 or below 1676ish.

1698.78 must be exceeded today, I would think, or else the lower range will be tested. Yesterday's failure was not a good sign, regardless if the futures are back at the same level. The overnight ramp is therefore suspect to me and feels like a relief rally unless the market gets convincingly above 1700 in the regular session of the cash index.

Jobless claims surprised (were lower than expected). Somehow this good news could turn bad if tomorrow's NFP number is better than expected.