The chatter is increasing about 10-year treasuries which may or may not have made a low in price and may now resume their ascent. I can certainly agree with this by viewing the charts, just as I can still see a path to higher prices in the stock market.
When viewed from a longer-term perspective, many markets seem to be making complex topping patterns, probably as a reaction to the confusion about the longevity of liquidity. These patterns will probably take a while. Thus one must trade with a variety of "what if" scenarios.
My current inventory is all over the place, and is an attempt to cover as many what ifs as possible. Like a retailer (J.Crew was mentioned recently), it's about trying to guess what style the market will embrace. Once known, production and inventories can increase once sales confirm.
Sales have yet to confirm.
Should yesterday's bounce continue, 1663-1670 is still of interest to me for adding puts. However, the weak close put this in jeopardy after I added SPY 166 calls in the afternoon. Should a new low occur, I'd be anticipating a marginal low that could wedge into 1644 or possibly 1636. Perhaps this won't be needed, because on a 30-minute chart, it looks as if price may be forming an inverse head and shoulders which could target 1675-1680. But if the market gets grumpy after the Fed minutes, there is still the 61.8% level below at 1617.
Preparing for what ifs ahead of time makes them more welcome when they decide to visit.
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