Thursday it was noted here that the next two trading days were very important. The market was due for a retracement, but should 1709.67 be broken too soon, it could be a bad sign.
Friday's close was ominous as a late day push got the market back above the level, closing just 24 ticks above 1709.67. Talk about a Hail Mary.
Futures indicate this this level could fail again at the open. It will then be up to the market to avoid a close below 1709.67 or else risk a failed breakout -- Turtle Soup -- which could see 1650 become the next target, if not much lower. Failed breakouts are dangerous and where late-to-the-party longs get creamed.
Because the S&P cratered on a Quadruple Witching day, the market has once again left a volume signature of going up on much less volume than it goes down on. This is not a signal to go short, but yet another warning to be aware of.
Fresh on the heels of Angela Merkel's re-election in Germany is the fresh bail-in at Italian lender Monte Paschi where bondholders are about to get screwed. So things appear to be getting back to the new normal in Europe quite fast. Things could here too.
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