The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, September 13, 2013

Emotions And Consistency

Futures have been in a tight range overnight and that's good if you want higher prices, because if price gets much below 1680 today during the cash session, it opens the door to the gap getting filled at 1671.71 (50dma is also here).

There are still those, like me, who view higher prices as something to be sold. Yesterday the market was at highs yet again with inverted A/Ds just before it sold off. Such readings matter, even during multi-year eras of excessive liquidity, and it pays to keep an eye on them.

Viewing anomalies and posting them via social media is not a way to win many friends. It runs counter to what the crowd is thinking. But it allows emotions to be kept in check, which is one of the keys to consistency.

As for how high should the market be sold, there is still a Fibonacci extension target at 1694.41 which roughly lines up with the swing point from August 14th. This area is simply the shoulder area of the smaller head and shoulders pattern which is within the larger pattern that is currently taking shape.

Getting below 1660 would call into question the idea of 94.41 getting tested and would be an early warning that the market may have gotten spooked. 1627.47 would be the immediate target, with 1560 as a secondary one.

I added a little upside delta yesterday with SPY 169 calls. I'll look to add 168s around the 1671 area.


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