The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Testing Testing Testing

Futures have gapped higher and have been trading in a 9 point range for the last 39 hours. Israel has test-fired missiles in the Med. Congress is voting whether to attack Syria. It's good that the president has decided not to proceed as a dictator would. But other than that, has anything really changed?

Not really. I surmised a bullish possibility of a bounce to 1645, on Twitter last Friday, but was not very enthusiastic about its chances. Today looks like 1646.41 will be tested. The bigger number -- the bigger question -- is whether 1670 will get tested.

At this point, because there was no new low on Friday, I'd have to say No. Price just doesn't appear to have enough of an impulsive look. It would not be the frist time, however, that the market has surprised me.

This just feels like a Rolaids bounce -- r-e-l-i-e-f.

I'm all for Congress voting. I'm not for a missile attack. I'm especially not for Bibi Netanyahu to begin adding fuel to the fire, even when it's called "joint missile tests." With Russia and China involved, and a US president who clearly needs to save face, there is the potential for a lot of egos to get in the way of reason.

Again, it feels pre-planned. And it's not even close to being over.

No comments:

Post a Comment