The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Three Years Later And 77% Lighter.

The S&P is 1% from its all-time high. That's barely a day's worth of gains. Any good news ought to get it up and over. Then what.

New 52-week highs minus new 52-week lows came in at 153 yesterday. Back in May there were over 400. Back in 2010 there were 671. Three years later and 77% lighter. Sounds like a weight loss commercial.

77% fewer leaders is not a joke. It's a markedly narrowing advance. If there's a single reason why I've doubted this market for so long, that's it.

The up thrust since 10/9 is weakening steadily as price climbs. Short term A/Ds, one of my favorite counter-trend tools, have caved in severely. Still, the market is saying loud and clear that it's going higher.

I still want to be buyer of dips, but I want to keep my power dry for any volatility that could appear with a last-minute impasse. Obviously yesterday was a buy, but it looked incomplete. Now in hindsight it was complete. For the time being, anyway.

The 1683 area looks as though, if there is another dip chance, that could be the place. Maybe 1670 as an extreme. Otherwise, there is Fib extension confluence from 1738.76 - 1748.86. Above there is still the 1778 area I've long been mentioning.

All price has to do is get above 1729.86 for me to pull off some SSO that I added against SPXU and then start working on SPY puts again.


No comments:

Post a Comment