The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, November 21, 2013

ARTFLOP

The market held 1780 yesterday, closing just above it. Volume was low on the equity side, but higher in the e-mini. Technically the market can reverse here and run to new highs, but 1773.44 remains an important hard stop for this scenario.

Elsewhere I'm noticing two very interesting things:

1) ARTFLOP

Bloomberg Businessweek reports that Lady Gaga's new album, ARTPOP, is not selling. Since Lady Gaga's fame has ridden the market rally since 2009, this is an important socionomic indicator that her 15 minutes of fame are nearing an end, and, by extension, the markets may soon follow.

Despite the breathless headlines reporting record sales of some art works, the big picture tells a different story: art is not keeping up.

THE MEI MOSES® FAMILY OF ART INDEXES©

IMPROVING OCTOBER AUCTION SALE RESULTS MOVES WORLD ART AUCTION MARKET SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SEPTEMBER RESULTS BUT IT REMAINS IN THE RED ON A YEAR TO DATE BASIS. U.S. EQUITY INDEXES REMAIN AT THEIR ALL TIME HIGHS AND EASILY OUTPERFORM ART.


2) What could be the real reason behind the increased Taper talk by the Fed:

PBOC Says No Longer in China’s Interest to Increase Reserves

Central banks around the world have become the buyer of last resort when it comes to their countries' bond market debt. It's happening with the ECB -- Greek, Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese bond yields are lower than they would be on the open market because the ECB is buying them. The problem is, hardly anyone else is doing so.

Same with the BOJ. Abenomics appears to work -- to journalists. But to bond traders, the farce is apparent.

The same could be starting to happen with the Fed. Without China pegging its currency to ours in a Faustian bargain, the Fed could find itself painted in a corner very fast.

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