The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, November 18, 2013

Notes On Historical Perspective

I read Bob Prechter's latest Elliott Wave Theorist this weekend with great interest. It's always a great big picture overview, as if written from 30,000 feet above the fray. I consider it a must read.

Bob published an historical chart from Investors Intelligence showing Bearish Sentiment data all the way back to 1980. A few things jumped out at me.

Would you believe that just before the epic breakout in 1995 there were more bears than in 1987 after the crash? There were.

Would you believe that there were fewer bears at the 2008 crash lows than there were in 1995? There were.

Would you believe that the last time there was a lower percentage of bears than right now was two months before the crash of 1987? It's true.

At 15.5%, right now, there are the lowest percentage of bears since 1987.

There were many other great charts. What I find amazing is that what is often termed "the most hated rally in history" is by many accounts one of the most loved.

In my opinion it seems hated because deep down inside people know the truth about it: assets are higher but spending power isn't.

In the overnight session, there is yet another impulsive rally. Higher highs should occur at the open. 1800 should be breached. But will it hold?

Perhaps a pullback to 1780 could occur in the next couple of days before yet another up thrust. Below 1773.44 would send a different, more bearish message.

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