Whippy Market

Nearly 30 points down and 23 points up -- this market has been pretty whippy over the last two days and hasn't made any progress in the last seven.

The S&P could easily poke above the 1774.54 high today and that would be that. Done. The rally from 2009 . . . over.

Or it could keep going.

Or it could fail to crest the top.

Or it could crest the top, rest and retrace for a few days and continue to rally. After all, 1778 still remains as a target. And the Dow may still want to hit 16,000 to complete a decade-long megaphone pattern. 16,000 is the upper trend line.

However, the S&P is starting to look a bit winded on the daily chart. New 52-week highs have plunged. Friday there were 115. Back on October 18, there were 463. I'm slowly buying VIX calls. That's about it.

From a socionomics perspective, a recent quote by Lady Gaga caught my eye. Her new album ARTPOP was released today, but her quotes were ominous. "I have to live and die by my own work . . . But no matter what happens, I'm prepared to go down with the ship," she says.

Gaga's popularity largely coincides with the rally since 2009. A sudden descent of her career would be an indication that the social mood forces that propelled her to stardom are on the wane, and therefore the rally too, by extension.

So it was interesting to see this headline from Bloomberg this morning, Race to Bottom Resumes as Central Bankers Ease Anew: Currencies.

Lady Gaga is not my cup of tea even though I think she's brilliant. I also think she's a valid leading indicator to watch carefully.