The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, December 30, 2013

The Latest Sure Thing

The latest Barron's cover may be another Montgomery Magazine Cover alert.

It is eerily reminiscent of this one from 2005, the last time housing was a sure thing, just before it imploded.

Even if it's a real signal, does it mean that everything's OK for another 2 years? No.

It is said that history doesn't repeat, but that it rhymes. Perhaps the reason is that social mood is not mechanical and can change at any time, for any reason. And the reason does not have to be a reaction to an outside event.

Mood is fickle, largely unpredictable, and should be treated with respect. The most we can do is use socionomics to predict when large-scale changes in mood are more likely to occur. However socionomics is not a sure thing. Nothing is.

Market wise, the way it is going lately, who knows what will happen. Or when. What currently feels like EOM, EOQ, EOY markup could suddenly stop without warning. Or it could keep subdividing higher.

There is a small gap at 1833.32 on the S&P cash that may get filled. But as long as 1800 holds, it would appear that a few more expansions and contraction are in order.

Elsewhere, a violation of 60.24 on Twitter could bring a test of the 55 area.


  1. Hey Jay, thanks so much. Happy New Year to you. Health and happiness. Take care