The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Something Else Perhaps

Yesterday's close was not impressive by any means. And if this market really is in a new up thrust to new highs, futures should be higher this morning given yesterday's pattern.

Perhaps something else is going on.

Today after the open price should get above 1840.10. If not, the first indication that the market is throwing a curve ball would be a dip below 1831.55. There are other patterns that could resolve with new highs. There is one that could resolve much lower. Today could tell the tale.

The longer the market levitates without a meaningful correction, the more it gets Skewed. For an excellent study of this, see Big Correction in Stocks on the Way? One Measure Says the Market Is SKEWED from the guys at See It Market. Here's why this is important:

Not only is SKEW elevated, then; but since inception (1990, which took the crown until the last couple sessions)) it has never been more elevated more often and more persistently. Moreover, the current 10-Day and 50-Day SMAs are 133 and 131, respectively versus the historic mean of 117; and SKEW has not below its historic average since 09/20/2013.
Comparing the probability table above, these averages take the likelihood of a 2 Standard Deviation move below the S&P 500’s running 30-Day Log Return from near 7% (117)  to 11% (132).  These figures do seem miniscule; but that’s only logical: they make reference to statistical outlier scenarios. They’re small numbers; but the 50% increase in left tail risk they indicate is anything but.

Knowing where and how to tell if the market is fooling you can make all the difference. If the S&P chooses to probe lower, 1811.08 is my bull/bear line. Just a 10% correction could see 1650 faster than most people think.

The market is still hinting higher. The moment it doesn't, my play will change.

No comments:

Post a Comment