The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

What Everyone Expects

Turkey blew up again overnight, fresh from being "solved" after doing a Paul Volcker on interest rates. The Turkish central bank hiked rates from 7.75% to 12%, causing SocGen currency strategist Benoit Anne to gush that the "crisis is over."

Over here, Congress is basically out of a job but hangs around to get insulted and still collect perks and pay checks. Few of them seem to care that the Czar wants them obsolete.

Today should be the day that we find if 1767.99 holds or not. EVERYONE expects a taper, so there is an opportunity here for the Fed to skip it, just to screw the shorts.

Here's how tapering was covered on Marketwatch last night: "Nothing -- Nothing! -- will deter Fed from tapering this week."

The Fed meeting concludes today with an announcement at 2:00 pm. Should the market make a new low below 1767.99, it will likely be a 5th wave which will mean an ending wave, which will mean I will want to be a aggressive buyer there . . . XIV, ES, SSO, sell puts (something new I've been adding to the repetoire).

Failure to make a new low could be quite bullish and could signal a larger triangle to new all-time highs with targets in the 1900s.

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