The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Failure At The Right Time?

The S&P is now approaching the 78.6% retracement of the scary decline, and overnight futures are still giving the appearance that they may want more. Price seems to be consolidating in a high-level triangle that could yield another up thrust on the cash S&P in the regular session.

There is a full moon on Friday at 6:53 pm EDT ahead of a long weekend. With the usual pre-holiday bias to close on or close to highs, the full moon could act as a trend kicker, as it often does. So shallow pullbacks would not surprise me. Nor would a bee line to the previous high in a 5th-wave blow off.

There is a volume shelf at 1827-1830 that coincides with the 78.6% level. Others have mentioned a gap at 1828.46. So higher may still be the plan.

Speaking of gaps, there's another one at 1844.86. Evidently this market is on a mission to eradicate the unbelievers. The irony is the presence of the 1929/present day overlay chart of the Dow. It may indeed fail, and its failure may cause both a sigh of relief and smug smirk from the bulls just when the 5th wave is ending. Right at the perfect time.

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