The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, February 10, 2014

Just Scenarios

4135.84 is the level of interest to me today. On the NASDAQ. If exceeded, it would create a 3-wave corrective structure from the most recent highs and suggest further highs to come. This could be an important tell for the Dow and S&P.

Or not. In 2000, recall that the tops of the NASDAQ and the Dow were exactly two months apart. So a continued bull run in the NASDAQ would not necessarily mean the same for the Dow and S&P, but could.

Meanwhile this chart is going around this morning, and it still is on the table with the Dow and S&P. It's an update of the Tom DeMark/Tom McClellan chart.

A continuation of the current rally is the only antidote. The 1815 area is resistance and stalling there could form a large right shoulder. A backfill starting today or tomorrow to the 1760 area should be watched carefully, as it could set up a rally that would be exactly what DeMark was warning about. If it stalled somewhere around 1807-1815, it could be crash material.

No fear mongering here. Just scenarios. Markets are psychological beasts. Bitcoin tanked 80% in minutes last night. It can happen anywhere.

As if to bring it on in style, The Fashion Institute of Technology just had an opening party for its exhibition "Elegance In an Age of Crisis: Fashion of the 1930s." Guests were decked out in '30s style and had a great time. It seemed a little like whistling past the graveyard to me.

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