The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Blanket Statements

Futures indicate a deeper probe into the 1853-1865 area mentioned yesterday. It is simply too soon to tell if the cash S&P will want to test all the way to the volume shelf and gap at the 1845 area.

1834.44 is the stop for the current market structure which is looking and feeling more and more like the rising wedge that I was anticipating in February.

I started getting long yesterday as the market dipped into the target zone. This morning that position is down 1% while the UVXY position gained 5% overnight, and is now up to 13% total. The decline still looks choppy to me, but choppy doesn't mean it can't go lower. For the time being, I'm okay with letting the market do what it wants. Below 1834.44 would cause me to reassess.

Regarding fashionomics, I checked the current take on the fall trends at WWD (Women's Wear Daily) and found they are making a blanket statement about the economy, literally.

Pre-Fall 2014 Trend: Blanket Statement

It was all about blankets, robe coats, feather down, a "warming trend" of big coats, shearling outerwear, cozy, furry, fuzzy, sweater-dresses, and velvet plush.

If these styles were being trotted out at a market low, they'd make me bullish. The fact that we're seeing them at all-time highs is extremely bearish in my opinion.

Getting ready for winter is one thing, but the desire to cover up with wearable blankets and be cozy and fuzzy is the opposite of the bull market propensity to be seen, to live in the fast lane (think caffeine), and to be expansive. Instead, these fall trends telegraph a possible "cooling trend" in the markets.

The Socionomics Of September Vogue 2014 should be quite a project.

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