The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Little By Little

Little by little the market is hinting that it's not ready to break. It may have lower levels in store, but perhaps not the Big Break or The Correction we've all been waiting for.

What this may eventually mean is that the 10% correction or whatever Wall Street thinks is normal or always happens (as if the market is some sort of machine) may not be so cut and dry. Going five years without a normal correction could mean a much worse event, such as a 10% correction for each year we didn't have one.

Until the signs appear though, the market may still have higher targets.

Yesterday's out-of-nowhere late day bounce felt like a Fed-related short covering rally. Perhaps Janet is already feeling the heat and will make some dovish announcement in the coming hours. Maybe she won't and the markets will feel let down.

Whatever the case, there are valid targets higher and lower. Yesterday's low does not seem to be the low, but that could change by getting above 1872.53.

The higher targets for today are 1849-1852. The lower targets are the 1812.74 1:1 Fib projection, the 1800 area, 1775.79, and the 200dma at roughly 1762.

1737.92 remains the hard stop for the new high scenario. Below that would suggest something else is going on that might take us all by surprise.

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