The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, April 7, 2014

Socionomics Is Getting Louder

Friday was an awesome day because I stuck to my plan. I had no idea how high the S&P would go, but I had a very good feeling about where to buy UVXY, at 54.50.

I was wrong. It only got to 54.54.

It worked anyway because I front run my targets. So Friday was a good way to end the week.

There is a nice volume shelf just below 1850, so the market may have lower prices in mind, but a bounce could come at any time. 1842.11 is the stop for the scenario I posted Friday afternoon on TwitterStocktwits.

Now, onto socionomics because every so often when it rains it pours. Actually, the title of this post is incorrect: socionomics is not getting louder (though it could be said to be gaining in acceptance) -- social mood is getting louder.

First there was the movement back to bright colors and neon noted here on March 26th in Bright Colors Hint At A Planetary Shift.

Then it was the latest cover of Time magazine noted on Friday. Hat tip to Paul Montgomery, the actual originator of the magazine-cover indicator for this one, and to Hochberg and Kendall at Elliottwave International for covering it in their latest Elliottwave Financial Forecast.

My personal take, which I noted on Twitter/Stocktwits, is that this cover suggests we may have reached "Peak USA." In light of recent events in Crimea and Ukraine, this potential should be very apparent.

But just when I was thinking that, socionomically, it doesn't get any better than this, along came the following article in the WSJ entitled, Go Mad for Maximalist Fashion.

What an absolute goldmine, chock full with so many juicy phrases that describe the current phony euphoria in perfect detail that it made me doubt the scenario of just one more high...

Though less-is-more has long ruled, now even minimalist designers, 
like CĂ©line's Phoebe Philo, are discovering the beauty of excess

Here's an actual excerpt:

ANY WOMAN who favors patterned, embellished and colorful clothing may have experienced a sense of dread when reviewing past seasons' collections—namely that she and her closet of high-decibel clothing were about to be flushed right out of fashion's in-crowd.

I can relate. As a lifelong maximalist dresser, I'm more comfortable in noisy clothes than I am in well-mannered uniforms that whisper. At times I have felt like an endangered species—or at least a very exotic one.

But then the 2014 spring collections happened. Suddenly, it seemed as if every brand was proposing clothing that shouted even more loudly than anything my maximalist sisters and I would consider wearing.

Back in the March 26th post, I was stumped by the trend back to bright colors. Now it feels like -- to use a technical analysis term -- coiling, such as when the markets coil or triangulate back and forth before they bust out in a strong trend.

The trend in this case would be down.

In The Socionomic Implications Of September Vogue: 2012, the word Baroque was used 4 times. Yet an editor noted, "There's a baroque feeling for fabric and texture that we haven't had around for a while." You mean since a year and a half ago? Maybe fashion really has gone mad.

Or have we.

The markets may soon have the answer. For they are the mirror of our minds and moods. In the meantime the warnings are getting louder and louder.

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