The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, April 3, 2014


Clearly something is changing in the broad market, and I think it's the character of the market itself. Momo stocks have broken hard. Biotechs and Social Media are leaking. Found this cool chart by way of John Hampson.

Source: Charlie Bilello

These may only be symptoms thus far, but I think they're the first hints of a chronic infection raging below the surface. In my opinion it's a market running on excessive sentiment and false confidence.

The waves may be a mess, but nonetheless they look like they're close to at least a correction. I've been adding UVXY against the SPXL that I've been holding. The only options plays I've done have largely been intraday. Without worrying about time decay I'm content to let the market do what it wants.

A correction could retrace to the 38% Fib level at roughly 1880 or possibly to the 1873 area. Below 1866.63 remain the spot that would get my attention that the symptoms may be worsening. I still see potential for 1903 above in the short term.

No comments:

Post a Comment