The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, May 9, 2014

When Bonds Spook Stocks

It must've been yesterday's 30-year bond auction.

The failure of the the S&P yesterday to get above 1891.33 was a bad sign, and it seems that once again the bond market had it right.

On the surface it looked good enough: the lowest yield for the 30-year since June of 2013. But there was a simple demand problem. Bid-to-Cover was the lowest since August 2011 while direct bidders took just 8.4% of the auction, the lowest since March 2013. This left dealers with 51.2% of the auction, the most also since March 2013.

That's enough to start ringing alarm bells anywhere.

Futures remain under pressure this morning. But unless the cash S&P gets below 1850.61, there is still a wedge structure to contend with that could result in higher prices.

I remain uninterested in the chop and am content to hide in the grass and wait patiently for an opportunity lower or higher, preferably above 1900 or well below 1850.

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