The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Today May Be The Day

Either today is the day -- or this week is the week -- when we find out if this chart is correct.

If so, expect a slightly higher high (the latest Fib target is 1900.51 and the previous one was 1903) then a three-wave corrective pullback to the 1850-1860 area.

What I like about this scenario is how it fits with the upcoming Alibaba IPO which has the potential to mark the end of Risk On for many years to come. A final new high in a month or so would be the ideal set up. Then a late-summer Ali-IPO that may go just fine but cannot result in a new market high could be the big Bell Ringer. All pure speculation at this point, however.

Yesterday's action occurred on strong A/Ds (no divergence). If there is follow through today on price with equally strong (or stronger) A/Ds, something else is likely going on.

But with the market fully valued here -- for example, the Case/Schiller ratio at 25.3X is almost 2 standard deviations away from its historical mean at just 15.9X -- its hard to put money to work on the long side.

The full moon is tomorrow at 3:16 pm EST, so a trend change can happen at any time. Yesterday's TRIN closed at .63 which is very close to the Sell Zone (.50), and Put/Call ratios are at readings that have accompanied tops, not breakouts.

There was a significant number out of Europe today: German Zew Investor Expectations index fell 23% from 43.2 to 33.1 amid expectations of 40.0. It is now down to the lowest since January 2013. Keep an eye on EURUSD which has been tanking impulsively since failing to reach 1.40 May 8th.

Today is also the day I head back (with my camera this time) to the Brazilian churrasco restaurant that I found the other day and absolutely loved. Not only were the hot-off-the-coals barbequed meats delicious beyond expectation, but I adored discovering a dish called feijäo tropeiro which are Brazilian-style beans with kale and yucca flour seasoning. Unreal.

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