The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, June 13, 2014

Charts And Scenarios

Here is an updated chart of the wedge. Notice it has just barely closed below it, but not yet convincingly.

The 1951.06 Fib projection target really did end up stopping the rally. Conservatively, I had thought a close above it, as was achieved at 1951.27, would signal still higher prices. These may indeed come, but it is important to remember that Fibs, while they may be eerily precise at time, are best used as areas.

Here is an idealized map to a possible top based on the current wedge pattern. A small bounce could develop at any time which could fizzle and test the 1900 area. From there a final sloppy three-wave rally could materialize to the 2,000 area. Many times these end with a spike above the upper trend line on higher volume and then a sharp reversal.

It's amazing the amount of consternation and anxiety that this sloppy decline has created thus far. It hasn't even achieved a 38.2% retracement of the prior rally. No trend lines have broken. There is no volume to it. And yet the hue and cry on CNBC was immense. I read this as an indication of the weak hands that are holding up this market. Measures such as Bloomberg's Smart Money Flow indicator show a market that has been deserted by insiders and distributed to individuals who may well end up being late to the party.

Elsewhere, Twitter's COO Ali Rowghani just announced he is leaving, by tweeting it no less. I'm amazed to see the stock green in the pre market. Also Head Of Media Chloe Sladden tweeted her departure. I find Twitter useful but difficult to monetize.

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