The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, June 23, 2014

PMI Pop Fizzle

China PMI took futures to new record highs overnight and then Europe wrecked it. Chinese PMI figures were 50.8, just barely exceeding neutral. Then Europe missed and futures caved in. Looks like a small developing head and shoulders on the futures chart, but there are still higher targets in play on the cash.

1973.72-1982.74 is the next zone of Fibonacci confluence above. The lower end would mean a kiss of the arc.

If the cash index chooses to follow fizzle along with Europe (which is down across the board this morning), there is a zone of Fibonacci confluence below at 1904.72-1910.58.

Since the wave structure looks like junk, it's getting harder and harder to say where the market would tip its hand that these lower prices might actually be tested. Getting below 1952.26 would be a good start. Doing so with a clearer wave structure down than has been shown on the way up would be even better.

US existing home sales get reported this morning at 10 am EST. No time for weak data, Yellen or no Yellen.

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