The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Price Levels Vs. News In A Mad World

The world has gone mad. Every country with a liquid bond market and a central bank has descended into madness which is reflected in the news each day.

At this time, with such an ambiguous wave count, it feels better to just breath and focus on the charts. The news is becoming circular as if it's on a crazed feedback loop and is not telling me anything new anymore. Such was the case in late-February 2009. Ignoring it paid off well.

Price got to the 1955 volume shelf but the set up fell apart. With market this frothy, who wants to buy a one-day pullback, especially when options prices -- amid extremely low volatility -- were warning of a misprice.

Asia got hit last night. Europe is down hard. And S&P futures just took a hit on the GDP and durable goods mess -- the worst GDP figure since 1st Q 2009 and the worst miss in orders so far in 2014. Pathetic.

There are far too many juicy areas of Fibonacci confluence below the market for me to speculate on higher prices, even with options. The set-ups need to be better, and yesterday didn't cut it.

1929.96-1931.87 is one.  1906.35-1913.83 is another. 1900.53 is the breakout gap. All the higher targets still stand, and if they get hit, great. Perhaps today or the next day will give a better opportunity to shoot for them.

I'm looking for confirmation of the wedge pattern, otherwise I will have to slap a tight trend line onto my chart and ride it. A correction into one of the above areas would confirm the wedge (if it held). Anything below 1868.14 would break the wedge and likely be a sign of something more dangerous.

"When people run in circles it's a very very mad world."

Mad World by Tears for Fears on Grooveshark

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