The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

The Arc Vs. The Wedge

10-year note futures (TYU14) are trading a bit heavy, just a hair above 124. A break of 124 could cause concern for some and joy for others, and most likely a return of that absurd "rising rates for the right reasons" narrative.

Just as falling rates did not mean anything bad for the stock market, rising rates probably won't mean anything good for the market. Not in a such a highly-levered economy as we have currently. There's only so much that cheap money can do. And when it starts getting more expensive, it doesn't always mean everything's suddenly OK.

S&P futures are slipping slightly, perhaps eyeing the 10-year, perhaps taking a breather. The market closed just ticks above the 1951.06 Fib level but looked and felt weak. It may be looking to fill the gap at 1940.46. The larger more important gap rests at 1900.53.

Filling 1900.53 would not break the uptrend, but it would break the arc posted here yesterday. Since blow offs are so rare in equity markets (they are usually more of a commodity phenomenon, as "fear" of scarcity sometimes causes parabolic price moves), this would be a welcome sign. It would also keep the wedge scenario alive, which would be comforting to those trying to find order from chaos.

The wedge still calls for higher prices, but it could be a road map for what may happen once they're attained.

Holding 1915.98 would keep the arc in play. The next higher Fib zone is from 1973.72-1982.74.

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