The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

A First-Aid Kit For The News & A Fibonacci Kit For The Markets

What a day of headlines so far and the market hasn't even opened yet.

Drudge: Death Valley Sets Summer Cool Temp Record (it's been foggy here for three weeks now, and i'm so done with it)

Drudge: Is thinking now obsolete? (just BTFD man; set it and forget it)

Bloomberg: Apple Buybacks Pay Most Ever as CEOs Spend $211 Billion (say hello to a rising tide. see what they get when the tide goes out)

FT: World Bank pledges $200m to fight Ebola (i thought there was "no cure" -- are they planning on mandatory vaccines?)

The Ebola scare is nonsense. It's a virus, just like any other virus. Flesh-eating bacteria is bacteria. Fungus is fungus.

Having an arsenal that kills all of them is important not just for your health, but your peace of mind, especially during the current 24/7 onslaught of fear-mongering and drama that American news does so well.

In my own first-aid kit I carry:

Oregano Oil. I use both capsule and tincture form. I've used several different brands. They've all been fine.

Colloidal Silver. I only use Sovereign Silver.

Tea Tree Oil (topical use only; not internal). I use Desert Essence Australian Tea Tree Oil.

Enough said.

Yesterday the S&P stopped at 1942.92, just ticks above a 38% Fibonacci retracement at 1942.53. Where it goes now will tell the tale.

Will it close off the developing impulse by getting below 1932.05? Will it gather itself and head for the next major Fib level, the 61.8% at 1958.69? (Some people use 50% retracements; I don't.)

What about the next volume shelf? There's a big fat one at about 1965.

Or will it probe for lower targets such as the 1900 area or possibly the craziest target I have: a 423.6% Fib extension target at 1882.85 that lines up with an 88.6% Fib retracement level at 1882.19 with support from the rising 200dma just below (currently 1859). This was mentioned Friday on Stocktwits/Twitter.

About all I plan to do this morning is buy some VIX calls. Then as the day develops I may add some SPY puts to the mix.

Having Fibonacci in your trading tool kit can bring order from chaos. Nothing works all the time. For that you need an ultimate set of tools.

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