The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

From Wedge To Channel To Monaco

Remember the wedge?

It now appears to be a channel.

This probably has very little impact on price targets, but it's important to keep track with whatever the market is saying at all times.

For now, price is saying higher, but volume remains the problem -- as usual -- showing much more volume on down moves than rallies.  This has been the case since late 2009, but it's a dangerous fact to ignore.

Futures are continuing their upward surge in the pre-market, though they may be forming a double top. I like VIX calls at this time against my longstanding SPXL position.

The nearest Fibonacci target is 1977.25. The next gap is 1987.98. Support is 1955-1960. Things could get weird below 1941.50. 1928.29 remains the hard stop.

The latest can't miss thing is Monaco real estate, specifically apartments. From Bloomberg --

Monaco, the tax haven on the French Riviera, is experiencing a luxury-housing boom that includes the world’s most expensive penthouse as developers prepare for an influx of millionaires and billionaires escaping higher taxes or a loss of banking privacy.

I love the line as developers prepare for an influx of millionaires and billionaires. Has the sure thing ring to it. Just like last time.

True, there is a genuine catalyst: the erosion of financial privacy. But there are many ways -- and many places -- to protect money. And as the world competes for the millions and billions seeking security, more and more opportunities emerge as more and more countries get in on the profits to be made by treating money well.

It's not different this time; it's supply and demand.

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