The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, August 28, 2014

GDP Revised Up, Futures Tank...And Why People Aren't Buying Guns

Good news. Second quarter GDP was revised up from 4.0 to 4.2%. Futures tanked.

That's addiction for you.

Addiction to low rates, buybacks, and easy monetary policy.

More and more, a narrative is growing that stocks will do fine when the Fed pulls the punch bowl away. The reason this narrative exists at all is that stocks are at historic all-time highs.

This is pure socionomics.

The market for guns ignited back in 2008-2009 when it looked like the financial system was imploding. It kept going until last year's record sales. But as the market made new highs and kept going, everyone breathed a sigh of relief.

Now:

People Aren't Buying Guns

"The reason is . . . too many guns."

The same happens when almost anyone can have virtually unlimited access to credit. After satisfying all their ego driven desires, they soon reach a point where they don't want it anymore.

Hard to tell if this point been reached yet, but it feels close.

Still, the market never got below 1995.76 yesterday. Doing so today would open the door to lower prices, namely the gap at 1988.40. The 23.6% Fib is roughly 1981 and the 38% is 1966.74. Only below 66.74 would be an eye opener for me, especially if achieved with higher volume.

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