The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, August 25, 2014

Ideal Set Ups For Today, Tomorrow, And Another Time

Today is a new moon and futures have gapped higher after the CME mysteriously halted Globex trading last night due to technical glitches.

Today is either an ideal set up for a gap and crap, or a low-volume levitation to set up a Turn Around Tuesday.

Currency moves in Forexland are starting to accelerate. The USD is gaining steam and the euro and yen are weak. If the move in USD persists, it could dislocate the market. The market hates a strong dollar.

Jackson Hole ended with dovish talk from Yellen regarding labor markets and rates, as in the labor market can't deal with higher rates just yet, so party on. Nothing can deal with higher rates, so it's a moot point -- which is why if the Fed has to follow rates higher (because it does not control the bond market, contrary to the dreams of many), things will get messy.

Above Friday's close is the psychological 2000 level and the 2014.18 Fib extension target. Internals are weak and these levels are sells for me.

Below 1941.50 would be problematic for higher highs.

The more I think about the current juncture on the S&P, the more I think it could be putting in some sort of wave three top, with a forth wave correction to the 1737 area to come, then another run to 2000+ in a fifth and final run to end the run from 2009. But that's for another time.

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