The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, August 1, 2014

Targets After A Very Impressive Day

Ha, ok. I'm impressed.

I admit I doubted the veracity of yesterday's decline until it was over. Well, almost.

I got my ass handed to me a couple times (actually 4X) trying to be a buyer on a washout day when everyone seemed to be a seller. After the last buy I saw the next Fibonacci extension target was around 1921 which coincided with a volume shelf and ran for the hills. That was it.

Losses were well below .5% because I used options in areas were I knew exactly where I'd be wrong. Still it's never fun to lose 4X in a row.

Actually I'm relieved after yesterday. At least the market did something. At least it confirmed a view -- at least for a day -- instead of looking more and more ambiguous as time went on.

Now this scenario doesn't seem so outlandish.

I slapped a Fib grid on it to show what @NicTrades noted at yesterday's close: that the market had only retraced a measly 23.6% of the rally since the Feb lows.

So in Fib terms, nothing has broken yet. Yet.

I remain constructive on the market (purely from a pattern standpoint; structurally it's a mess) until 1814.36 fails (watch 16015.32 on the Dow). The lower rail of the chart above can shift lower possibly even down to 1900 or just below and it would still be a wedge. The potential upside is huge, 2000 oughta do it.

A/Ds closed at an stunning -8.97:1. VIX term structure is inverted. TRIN is deep in the buy zone. The 10-year is bouncing. The S&P could surprise us to the downside and then to the upside.

At least it still knows how to impress us. And it was about time.

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