The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Abenomics On The Ropes, Global PMIs On The Skids, S&P Wants Higher

As central banks around the world try to inflate away unpayable amounts of sovereign debt, Japan continues to be the canary in the coal mine.

"Potentially more worrisome [than an annualized 6.8 percent drop in GDP in the April-June quarter], real wages have fallen for 13 straight months as wage growth lags price rises, data on Tuesday showed.
"That drop is casting doubt on a central tenet of Abenomics - that stimulus and higher prices would lift company profits and lead to higher wages, spurring consumption and making growth self-sustaining."
Abenomics has to work or the whole central banking game is up, worldwide.
Or else things will look like the chart put out by Bank Of America showing 17 countries with a zero-to-negative month-over-month change in their manufacturing PMIs.

No one cares yet, so no biggie. Just don't be surprised when they do.

The 10-year doesn't look so joyful today. The latest move down in price looks impulsive too. But it would have to travel a long way for true damage to occur.

For now it feels like the S&P is gathering steam to either hit the 2014.18 Fib extension target or the upper trend line of the weekly channel (the chart suggests the 2030 area). Below 1964.04 would be the first sign that it was doing something other than gathering steam.

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