The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, September 22, 2014

Back In The Saddle

The 1997.65 bull/bear line was exceeded last Tuesday which paved the way for new highs.

From Monday's 1978.48 low a new Fib extension target of 2018.60 replaced the previous 2014.18 target. The S&P reached 2019.26 on the Alibaba IPO and closed below the Fib target after declining in five waves, a potentially bearish sign.

Sadly, the Alibaba IPO is the latest sign of a market gone mad. This is a company whose own SEC S-1 filing plainly admits that 80% of its revenues come from the sale of phone cards, video games, home furnishings, and baby products.

Hardly a business model with a high barrier to entry.

There are still higher Fib targets, yes, but the market now needs to be watched carefully. 1904.78 should not be messed with in any way.

Friday I dumped the entire SPXL position from June after adding to the UVXY position that I've slowly been building. I still hold SPY 201 calls expiring this week that are fully paid for.

I still see higher potential unless 1993.29 fails.

The 10-year note just barely held 123'12.5 while I was away. It does not look like it will last, but it very well could. This level may become my new bull/bear line for the near term.

I had a very successful trip and learned a ton. More on that later. For now it's good to be back in the saddle and not trying to trade from a smartphone.

Back in the Saddle by Aerosmith on Grooveshark

2 comments:

  1. Looking forward to reading the Vogue analysis!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Awesome. Hope you enjoy it. http://marzbonfire.blogspot.com/2014/09/the-socionomic-implications-of.html

    ReplyDelete