The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Bullish Corrections And Bearish Sentiment

Pushed the wrong button last night while doing final edits on the 2014 September Vogue analysis and some unlucky people saw an unfinished edition complete with a halfway edited summation and 25-30 known corrections to be made. Kind of a buzz kill.

I kept going anyway. It should be out later this morning.

Prepare for a bearish edition this year. I was stunned by the amount of explicit market-oriented wordage throughout the issue, much of it quite foreboding.

For instance, one article started with the phrase "If it were 1968...." Well, in 1968 a bull market ended and the Dow fell 30% into May of 1970.

The intriguing thing is that currently even a sharp 20-30% correction could still leave the market in a potentially bullish configuration. In fact the S&P could pull back all the way to 1494 and still be technically bullish.

Still, higher prices seem likely. The 61.8% Fib extension target at 2014.18 and the 2030 area continue to be two levels of interest for me. But if achieved along with a detectable culmination of five waves, puts will be used, and a lot of them.

Four separate market sentiment firms are reporting the highest levels of bullishness all year, and one firm, Credit Suisse, reported that their Fear Barometer is at the lowest level ever.

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