The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, September 12, 2014

Scotland, The 10-Year, And The Bull/Bear Line

Yesterday's large down tick at the open worked itself out with a lower low on lighter ticks for a classic positive divergence set up. Doing so it also created a bullish three-wave structure that should bode well for higher prices. Again, 2000.47 is the key level, though, and I am using it as a bull/bear line.

Failure to break above it could keep pressure on lower prices down to the 1970 area. A break above it should clear the way to eventual new all-time highs. Those highs, anywhere in a range from 2014.18-2081, would be seen by me as areas to get short.

Of course it looks as if the timing will once again occur when I'm away from the screens. I'll be out all next week. I'd rather not be trading from a phone, but if I have to, I have to.

For now, the 10-year note seems to be important to monitor, as it remains above 2.5% and price has not bounced yet.

Elsewhere, it is hard to understand all the hand wringing over the succession vote in Scotland. This is simply what happens, according to socionomic theory, in bear markets -- things break apart.

In bull markets, they come together. Socionomics points out how the EU finally came together in a bull market after centuries of warring.

The mere vote in Scotland to leave the UK -- regardless of the outcome -- could be seen as a bear market indicator. Yes. Just because the stocks around the world are at nominal highs doesn't mean that social mood can't be turning negative at the same time. It's a possible indication of a very large turn.

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