Expect Anything

The Drudge Report called the bottom again, almost to the minute. But now there's a new worry: things are too good in the labor market. Jobless claims fell to their lowest level in 14 years and futures freaked out. That's not exactly a recipe for more "help" from the Fed.

As if the Fed has really helped anything. They're as much to blame for current conditions as the people who drank their Kool Aid.

This is the chart that matters to me now. It projected yesterday's end point within 1.15 points, a margin of error of just 0.58%.

I took some profits on my long suffering UVXY position which had swung from a 45% loss the day before the Alibaba Top (when I last added to it by phone, on vacation) to as much as a 32% gain yesterday. I also bought SPY calls at the Drudge low (which eerily coincided with the Fib target).

With no new low on the employment news, the market could be forming a double bottom or gathering steam for another leg down, which is why I added the extra Fib targets. Once you get a direct hit, there can be others too, so it's wise to use a "correct" Fib measurement until it breaks.

Notice the 261.8% target would line up with the Feb. lows at 1737.92.

Op-ex is tomorrow. Expect anything. Up or down.

Elsewhere, Erica Blomgren noted that Norwegian banks reported slightly lower household credit demand even after mortgage rates were recently lowered. So it seems, yet again, that no matter where they are in the world, consumers do reach a point where easy money has diminishing returns and does not guarantee endless expansion.