The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, October 3, 2014

Why Today Could Be The Day

Today is the day I will likely get filled on the euro (remember that trade?). Today could be the day that the market tips its hand whether this decline is a correction or the first few impulse waves of a substantial decline.

I've been trading it as if it's a correction. It's been rough, but yesterday made it all worthwhile. If futures hold this morning and carry over into the cash market, there is a chance today could settle it.

The number is 1964.04. The better number is 1985.17 but that's asking a lot.

Last Friday, the possibility of an ending diagonal back to new all-time highs was mentioned. That was part of the reason why I was trading longs aggressively during the decline.

Getting above 64.04 would only be the first indication that that scenario may be in the works. The safer level is 1985.17. I doubt that will happen today but who knows.

On the flip side, yesterday's 1926.03 lows got below the 2nd level of Fibonacci confluence which I did not like. 26.03 is now a hard stop or else the market may shoot for 1904.78 which would negate the ending diagonal.

There is an uncanny amount of fear in the current news flow that is bordering on hysteria. Focus on the things that make you happy.

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