Immediately thought of this line from September Vogue:
"...just as things have been speeding along so mesmerizingly fast...
a whole new thing unexpectedly shot into view from the margins..."
I don't "buy" singles day.
Recall that the Alibaba's SEC S-1 filing plainly admitted that 80% of its revenues came from the sale of phone cards, video games, home furnishings, and baby products.
In other words, zero barrier to entry.
Take caution not to get mesmerized by a market that is unhinged from reality. You never know when a whole new thing will unexpectedly shoot into view from the margins. Especially when things are stacking up the way they are.
Combined Investors Intelligence and AAII readings are the most bullish ever.
CitiGroup Panic/Euphoria model shows persistent negative divergence since last March as the markets have edged higher. Quants will look at this and say everything's fine.
One by one people are sobering up.
E-mini open interest is diverging too. Similar to volume only less affected by ETFs, dark pools, and other forms of off-exchange dealing, declining open interest signals lack of new participation during a trend which can signal a reversal.
It now appears to be rolling over. Paired with volume (vertical bars) it paints a foreboding picture.
Meanwhile, intraday advancers/decliners has been doing the same since 10/21.
In Japan, PM Shinzo Abe is rumored to be considering postponing the next increase in consumption tax because the economy can't support it. Bullish?
Yen traders thought so, as did e-mini futures traders at 1:00 am. But momentum is fading in the yen as it closes in on the 124 level from 2007. There is a Fib target at around 119. A rollover in the USDJPY -- a strengthening due to short carry covering -- would be the kiss of death for markets already drunk and teetering.
Likewise, if USD gets above 89.62 from 2009, knees will buckle in central bankers around the world. They will have failed to destroy that which will come back to bite them.
The S&P is at the upper trend line. This week's close is crucial to bulls and bears alike.
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