NFP, Trend Line Resistance, Hemingway Turns, And Pretty Big Flags

Non Farm Payrolls Day. In my opinion, the headline number doesn't matter as much as the wage figures. Any perceived heat in wage growth could spook the market because it could cause a perception that the Fed may consider hiking rates faster, or something like that.

I'd rather keep my eye on the trend line.

So 214,000 jobs were reported and was relatively good, meaning relatively benign. For example, hourly pay rose 0.1%, so wage growth was not scary.

Futures seem to agree with the benign-ness and are not doing all that much. In my opinion, this could put pressure on lower levels unless someone finds a bullish nugget in the NFP figures to latch onto. But it's refreshing not to see another central bank-induced gap 'n' go.

2038 +/- could cap the market here for the near term. The gap at 1994.65 could therefore become more of a magnet.

Asia and Europe are mixed: Japan up, China down, UK up, Germany/France down. Gold and oil are up almost 1%. Natural Gas is consolidating its big gains from yesterday. Even the euro is up a small bit.

All this is good for me as I am constructive on NG, oil, gold, AUS, and EUR. Turns often happen "gradually then suddenly," to quote Hemingway from The Sun Also Rises. I have a variety of small positions both direct and indirect in these instruments. I plan to add more.

A couple things that I am watching: the divergence in credit vs. equity. High yield credit and the 10yr are not confirming the rise in the Dow, S&P, Nas, and Russell. Also, the broader New York Composite Index has not confirmed the other indexes by making a new all-time high.

These may sound small. But they're pretty big red flags.