Wow, overslept today. You know how when it rains hard that it's hard to wake up? Well, it's been raining for three days now. At least it's not snow or it would look like Buffalo, NY.
Greece is blowing up again, and it's got nothing to do with oil.
It's debt, per usual.
Greek bond yields are now higher than they were when they freaked out everyone a few years ago.
This is having ripple effects in Spain, Italy, and Portugal.
Again, non-oil related.
Oil, ironically, may instead reveal a debt problem in the oil service industry which gorged on the stuff and now has to pay it back as prices (and profits) are crumbling. This could cause a massive dislocation and widespread defaults ironically leading to less oil being brought to market thus a higher oil price.
For now, there is a 1:200% Fib extension target at 59.26 which is where I will probably step in with another tranche of call options (the 2nd of a possible 3 tranches).
For the S&P, right now, at 10:05 am, if price gets above 2054.30 without a new low (below 2046.40), I'll be a buyer of calls.
But if 2046.40 fails, it's possible that yesterday's lows get tested. The 10-year looks primed for higher prices and lower yields over the next several days which could signal further lows in Equity land.
UPDATE 10:21 am -- the new low at 2045.05 is just sloppy and shallow enough to suggest a correction, so a rally above 2054.30 would be bullish, in my opinion.
No comments:
Post a Comment