Thursday Market Update -- Breakdown Levels

News:
Nothing noteworthy...

ES Futures:
...except that the overnight bounce thus far looks rather weak.

FX:
If for any reason the US dollar index gets above 95.01 today or tomorrow, news highs could be around the corner. Ditto the euro: below 1.12229 and new lows likely.

Bonds:
Overnight volume in 10-year note futures is a standout yet again. And even yields in 5s went lower yesterday. It feels that the market may be figuring out that Yellen does not know -- or believe -- how deep a hole the Fed is in.

Energy:
Oil can't seem to rally. Or perhaps that's the bluff. The measured move target of $43.53 basis the March contract remains, and the multi-year Fib extension target at $37.33 still stands. Obviously now the expansion in open interest is due to shorts piling on. This will get interesting.

Metals:
Gold is backing off another 1% this morning but off its worse levels. It too has an expansion of open interest, which is what you want to see in an up trend.

S&P Outlook:
With the overnight bounce in ES futures looking weaker by the minute, and with the SPX closing below the lowest Fib extension target I cited yesterday on Stocktwits, I could see a probe below the 2000 level today before a buy sets up (if one sets up at all).

Dumped Tuesday's calls yesterday morning when the SPX failed to get above the 2040 area. Picked up some more in the last hour.

A break of 1972.56 could bring this chart back into play. That's still a rather tough job at this point, because 1988.12 still hasn't failed.