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Friday, February 6, 2015

Friday Market Update -- Krone, Jobs, Bonds, Oil, Fibs

With the chart of USDDKK looking like a mirror image of the US dollar index (broken out above its 2005 high), speculation is growing that Denmark may abandon its euro peg.

ES Futures:
Listless ahead of January's jobs report. Looks like a bearish rising wedge forming over the past two days.

Aside from the Krone chatter, FX land is rather quiet.

10s again lead overnight Globex volume by a wide margin.

5s, 10s, and 30s are backing down in price to some interesting levels. If either one penetrates its respective Jan. 22nd lows, it would be a big red flag.

Crude is up 2% and could be setting up for at least a run to the $58 area in the next several days. NG plumbing new lows and starting to look interesting again.

Gold still lacks escape velocity. 1239 remains a significant level to me.

S&P Outlook:
It appears that the market may have the 2064.62 swing point in its sights, or even possibly the 2069.44 78.6% Fib retracement level the way it's been hanging at these highs.

A/Ds were much improved yesterday, but negative divergence remains. Not by much, however. Volume is abysmal, but what's new in a rally.

The VIX is sitting exactly on its 20dma (16.85). Where it breaks from here could be the tell.

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