The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, February 2, 2015

Monday Market Update -- SuperBrawl

The big news is that I went out for some street food last night and did the whole thing in Spanish and even got a high-five from the super cute cashier after I made a mistake, realized it, then corrected myself. It felt really cool.

Oh and the food -- tamarind BBQ chicken wings -- was awesome.

The other big news is the term SuperBrawl as a description of last night's SuperBowl. This is yet another social mood alert and is a big reason while I want to be very short at any new all-time high, should it occur.

Another fascinating thing is this chart of "volatility" from the game using data by that I found on Zero Hedge showing "what otherwise may have been the most nail-biting super bowl in history." Interesting.

Source: via Zero
Kind of feels descriptive of this triangle overlay. Lots of bulls and bears fighting, both sides getting more and more frustrated.
When I study the above charts, they're yet more reasons why I feel we will eventually head higher even if 1972.56 fails.

ES Futures:
Weak, choppy overnight bounce suggests yet lower prices today.

The US dollar continues to pressure the 95.01 area. A break above would suggest new rally highs.

Yields are up slightly with 5s still showing relative strength vs. 10s and 30s, and 10s still winning the overnight volume grudge match by a wide margin.

Oil rallied hard on Friday and shows some follow through this morning, but the pattern looks suspiciously like a nearly-complete a-b-c pattern which would project a final low (which would represent one hell of a buy). There is still a 37.33 target looming.

Remaining constructive on gold unless 1239 fails.

S&P Outlook:
1988.12 looks like it wants to fail. The bigger level remains 1972.56. Thursday's rally from 1989.18 failed, therefore there is now a risk of visiting a 1:1 extension target at 1963.51, the next Fib levels at 1924.90 or even 1879.06.

If no failure at 1989.18, though, a sharp rally could ensue.

Based on the number of overlaps thus far, however, I would still view such lows as strong buys unless the wave structure drastically changes.

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