The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, February 2, 2015

Monday Market Update -- SuperBrawl

News:
The big news is that I went out for some street food last night and did the whole thing in Spanish and even got a high-five from the super cute cashier after I made a mistake, realized it, then corrected myself. It felt really cool.

Oh and the food -- tamarind BBQ chicken wings -- was awesome.

The other big news is the term SuperBrawl as a description of last night's SuperBowl. This is yet another social mood alert and is a big reason while I want to be very short at any new all-time high, should it occur.

Another fascinating thing is this chart of "volatility" from the game using data by PredictionMachine.com that I found on Zero Hedge showing "what otherwise may have been the most nail-biting super bowl in history." Interesting.

Source: predictionmachine.com via Zero Hedge.com
Kind of feels descriptive of this triangle overlay. Lots of bulls and bears fighting, both sides getting more and more frustrated.

wavepatterntraders.com
When I study the above charts, they're yet more reasons why I feel we will eventually head higher even if 1972.56 fails.

ES Futures:
Weak, choppy overnight bounce suggests yet lower prices today.

FX:
The US dollar continues to pressure the 95.01 area. A break above would suggest new rally highs.

Bonds:
Yields are up slightly with 5s still showing relative strength vs. 10s and 30s, and 10s still winning the overnight volume grudge match by a wide margin.

Energy:
Oil rallied hard on Friday and shows some follow through this morning, but the pattern looks suspiciously like a nearly-complete a-b-c pattern which would project a final low (which would represent one hell of a buy). There is still a 37.33 target looming.

Metals:
Remaining constructive on gold unless 1239 fails.

S&P Outlook:
1988.12 looks like it wants to fail. The bigger level remains 1972.56. Thursday's rally from 1989.18 failed, therefore there is now a risk of visiting a 1:1 extension target at 1963.51, the next Fib levels at 1924.90 or even 1879.06.

If no failure at 1989.18, though, a sharp rally could ensue.

Based on the number of overlaps thus far, however, I would still view such lows as strong buys unless the wave structure drastically changes.

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