The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Thursday Market Update -- Window Dressing Or Window Breaking

Feels like capital flight from Greek banks may outrun their reforms.

ES Futures:
Not seeing an impulsive move from yesterday's sell off, so perhaps more weakness to come.

S&P Outlook:
Tweeted a stop on Stocktwits yesterday -- 2103.20 -- which is still valid, for me anyway. The current pattern is tough to read: maybe one more high to come, or a hard decline today, or perhaps a mix of both.

Next week should resolve whether the market is in a "b" wave or wave "3" of a wedge. Chart to follow in a day or two.

Window dressing could keep the markets up, but if 2103.20 breaks, the dressers may have their work cut out for them.

USD still poised for higher highs even though it's a very crowded trade. With the break of 1.12609, EURUSD is poised for new lows.

These remain well bid, but must achieve new highs to lessen the chance of a topping pattern.

Crude and NG remain unconvincing even though both are extremely oversold. Still do not see a compelling trade in either, however, if 48.43 holds in crude, there may be a strong rally.

Gold has rallied above 1200 but still lacks follow through.

Special Situations:
Accumulating UVXY. This will take a while.

With VIX getting into the 12s yesterday along with frothy term structure, I have begun adding UVXY while continuing to buy SPY calls on dips. 2103.20 remains the current stop for any more calls.

VIX recovered well from its new lows and made a small bottoming tail on a candlestick chart.

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