The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Thursday Market Update -- Window Dressing Or Window Breaking

News:
Feels like capital flight from Greek banks may outrun their reforms.

ES Futures:
Not seeing an impulsive move from yesterday's sell off, so perhaps more weakness to come.

S&P Outlook:
Tweeted a stop on Stocktwits yesterday -- 2103.20 -- which is still valid, for me anyway. The current pattern is tough to read: maybe one more high to come, or a hard decline today, or perhaps a mix of both.

Next week should resolve whether the market is in a "b" wave or wave "3" of a wedge. Chart to follow in a day or two.

Window dressing could keep the markets up, but if 2103.20 breaks, the dressers may have their work cut out for them.

FX:
USD still poised for higher highs even though it's a very crowded trade. With the break of 1.12609, EURUSD is poised for new lows.

Treasuries:
These remain well bid, but must achieve new highs to lessen the chance of a topping pattern.

Energy:
Crude and NG remain unconvincing even though both are extremely oversold. Still do not see a compelling trade in either, however, if 48.43 holds in crude, there may be a strong rally.

Metals:
Gold has rallied above 1200 but still lacks follow through.

Special Situations:
Accumulating UVXY. This will take a while.

With VIX getting into the 12s yesterday along with frothy term structure, I have begun adding UVXY while continuing to buy SPY calls on dips. 2103.20 remains the current stop for any more calls.

VIX recovered well from its new lows and made a small bottoming tail on a candlestick chart.

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