The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, March 13, 2015

Friday The 13th -- Bad Data, Acrimony, Ackman, Buybacks, Rollover Weirdness, Simplicity

ES Futures:
Backing off from yesterday but not looking for trouble it would seem.

More bad data (PPI) after more bad data yesterday, except that today it's not causing people to hit the Buy button, just yet, in speculation that it might make the Fed pause.

The acrimony is increasing in Europe as old wounds cause pain. A mess about to get more messy.

Speaking of Acrimony, Bill Ackman is in the news again with Herbalife. Seems the FBI may want to discuss a few things with him.

People laugh at Zero Hedge, but if you dig, there are great nuggets each day. Here's another one:

"GM did $20.4 billion worth of buybacks from 1986 through 2002. If it had saved that money and earned a modest 2.5% on it, the company would have had $35 billion on hand when the financial crisis and Great Recession hit and probably would not have had to file for bankruptcy protection."

USD is worth watching for a deeper pullback. If not, the pain trade in multinationals could increase.

The weird rollover in 30s looks more and more like "break it out to break it down" -- a false move to new highs in order for large insiders to sell it. As said in a previous post, none of the CME material that I was directed to by my brokers passed the smell test.

Meanwhile 2s, 5s & 10s try to rally . . . shorter vs longer.

Crude and NG, at best, continue to make progress toward forming higher odds patterns.

Ditto gold . . .

S&P Outlook:
A simple way to look at things.

Some speculation, though:

Unless there is strong follow through soon, there is still the possibility for a flush that breaks the October trend line while remaining above 1980.90. This would be an ideal set up for next week's Fed meeting (think dovish jawboning) and op-ex. It simply doesn't feel as if enough people got short yet.

I still feel that it's a tricky "b" wave and that a new high, should it come, would be "3" with a three-wave pullback for "4" and a final three-wave rally for "5" to follow.

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