The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, March 9, 2015

Monday Update -- More QE, More Greece, More Action

ES Futures:
Currently bouncing to the high of a tight overnight range, but overall not much progress after Friday's rout.

EU supposedly begins QE today, but Greece is back. What appeared so completely far-fetched as to be a joke over the weekend -- that finance minister Varoufakis would enlist tourists as informal tax inspectors -- was actually true, and was promptly rejected by the debt lords. As if.

Euro is higher this morning, on QE? Or on the thought that Greece may be beyond repair and that the euro would be much better off without it in the EU?

Too soon to tell, but interesting action. Still holding long EURUSD bias.

5s and 10s are edging closer to the Dec 24th abyss.

Crude and NG still in No Man's land. Higher odds will come eventually.

Higher odds in gold may be to the down side after Friday's action, but for the next several months I would look to be a buyer lower and a seller higher.

S&P Outlook:
2041.88 continues to be an important level for the current scenario I'm following. If broken, other potentials enter, but for the time being I'm sticking with the plan.

The plan is that dips should be bought using call options against the remains of the UVXY position against 2041.88.

Even if 41.88 breaks, the decline is sloppy enough that a large bounce could occur anyway. There is a significant volume shelf at 2100 that could get tested, possibly this week.

For all the fear and loathing last week, the market only reached a 38% Fib support level after perfectly testing (and bouncing from) the 23.6% level. This is orderly action, and thus far, precise, too.

Yes, the market could test lower before turning, but so far it's not suggesting that it is interested in fulfilling earlier scenarios that might have included a test of 1925. That would have required a sharp "c" wave, and I'm just not seeing the required sub waves to achieve it yet.

No comments:

Post a Comment